I do believe that conciousness and intelligence is replicable in an artificial context (in fact, many ai applications these days deliver results that are really amazing; just think about pattern recognition and navigation systems) but it would seem that it's impossible to have a prediction. There have been numerous serious predictions about this in the past (Arthur C. Clarke's HAL, for example, and mr. Clarke was a genius, having already predicted the use of geo-stationary orbits for communication satellites) but in the end this is such a complex thing that factors might never fall into place. On the other hand, digital technology being what it is means that having achieved a true, concious AI that this would be scaleable and duplicable across systems in way that biological intelligence never could be.
It would be I think one of the most amazing things ever: you'd have a life form that wasn't created out of an evolutionary drive, so it presumably wouldn't have any need for aggressiveness. On the other hand, attachment to others and love are also significant evolutionary factors so it might not have that either. Ah, where's Susan Calvin when you need her?
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This is very cool - but I doubt whether it'll happen soon. As far as I know, Ray Kurzweil also intends to transfer his personality into a computer and thus never die so I'm kind of sceptical.